This Is Where Our Market Is Heading

Our real estate market operates in seven- to 10-year cycles. We are in year six from the last downturn, so we are keeping a close eye on any changes in the market.

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Real estate markets operate in cycles. Most of these cycles last seven to 10 years. The first one I experienced started in 1983 and lasted until 1990. In 1983, the market was normal. In 1986, we saw a big decrease in interest rates, which dramatically increased affordability and also led us to a big wave of refinances. Then in 1990, things started all over again.

No matter who wins the election, interest rates will likely go up.

The last recovery we had stopped in 2011, so we are six years removed from that. This cycle has been very interesting because the seventh year will fall under a new presidential administration. Who knows what will happen. One thing we do anticipate no matter who wins is that interest rates will start to increase.

As for our current market, we are seeing lots of positive trends. We took the numbers from January 1 to July 31, 2015, and compared them with the numbers from the same time frame in 2016. Overall, the average price of a home is up slightly, from $570,000 last year to $576,000 this year. Here’s what has been happening in a few specific markets.

In Chino Hills, we saw a lot of positive signs. From January 1 to July 31, 2015, there were 509 homes sold for an average price of $607,000 in an average of 65 days. For the same time period in 2016, the average price increased to $623,000 representing a 2.5% increase in value and the number of sales and the average days on market stayed pretty much the same. 

Another market we looked at was Arcadia. We are seeing the opposite happen here. In 2015, they had 365 home sales for an average of $1,372,000 in 66 days. This year, home sales dropped to 349, the average days on market increased to 69, and the average home price dropped by 3% to $1,295,000.

One more thing I wanted to mention is that I would love the chance to meet up with some of you in October to talk about real estate investing and what your plans for next year are. If you are interested in meeting up, give me a call or send me an email. I would love to hear from you. I’m also always here to answer any questions you may have.